The #olive #pollen 🌸 forecast over Europe for the next few days shows high pollen counts (purple areas, >1000 grains/m3) over southwestern #Spain and #Portugal as olive trees come into bloom.
A big problem is that #flowering is starting at a time of extreme #heatwaves in the southern Iberian Peninsula. Weather forecasts for the region through 6 May show several days (including today) with >36 °C.
Olive pollen count is correlated with final yields. More pollen indicates more flowers which can turn into olives. However, olive flowers are sensitive to the weather. Temperatures >26 °C may damage flowers and decrease yields.
In Spain, pollen counts are highest in #Córdoba, #Jaén, and #Sevilla, having peaked 2-3 weeks earlier than last season. Peaks are also higher. Despite high flowering, yields may remain low if flowers suffer heat damage.
Flowering was first in Spain and Portugal owing to their warmer Atlantic climate, and in northern #Morocco, #Algeria, and #Tunisia. The bottom left shows they have already accumulated >1200 growing degree days.
In the next weeks, the bottom right shows flowering will start in #France, #Italy, #Greece, and #Turkey as GDDs reach the threshold for flowering. It will be necessary to watch the weather there as flowering progresses.
Data from @Finnish Meteorological Institute #SILAM, @Sociedad Española de Alergología e Inmunología Clínica #SEAIC, and @European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts #ECMWF.
#oliveoil, #evoo, #aceite, #aceitedeoliva, #huile, #huiledolive, #olio, #olioextraverginedioliva
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